Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Will the Euro survive?



Lately there has been a lot of mention of whether the Euro has a problem, whether it will survive and whether it was a good idea.
This has of course come from the credit crisis that has been going on in the eurozone for the last while.
With the imminent controlled collapse of the Greek economy (any other final outcome really is unrealistic if you ask me.) there are fears that this event will transplant itself throughout the eurozone and drag other countries, like Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, with it down the drain.

Now it may not be immediately obvious to everyone why that is.
The fast explanation is that a lot of the Greek debt is owned by banks in other nations, a good chunk of it is also owned by those other countries that are also in  economic problems at this time. If Greece crashes, especially in an uncontrollable manner, that debt will be defaulted on. When this happens the real possibility and fear is that these other financial institutions will also collapse due to all of that defaulted on debt and annuities on that debt, causing both a dramatic drop in capital held in government bonds but also a decline in income from the annuities on those bonds.

If the banks and other financial institutions go down then, well the fear is that what happened in the US with the collapse of several large financial cornerstones, will happen in the eurozone as well.
That is the fast and dirty explanation on what is going on with that situation at the time.

Now, the Euro.
Do I think that the Euro will collapse as a common currency of the EU?
No I don't.
The reason is that so much political capital has been invested in it that to many the thought, if it comes down to it, will be unthinkable.
The Euro was a significant step on the road towards European unity and a collapse of the Euro will mean a significant setback on the path towards that, a path that has been more difficult and much slower than one might have expected when work started on the idea of a truly united Europe.
This will make it very difficult for a lot of actors to let it collapse and the political ramifications alone will make it unlikely when we get down to it, though some member nations may drop out of it again for a little while.

Was it a good idea?
The answer there is both a yes and a no.
With the vision and the plans that were held at the time it was a very good idea. A single united currency binding together member states and forming a close-knit union of countries. In many ways one could say that the idea was "The United States of Europe". As both a part of this, as well as a prod to further this closer connection it was, and continues to be a good idea. It helps in creating a more united and common identity, it helps greatly with trade between member countries and generally eases a lot of the problems and risks of currency when it comes to international trades, easing the risk for private sector companies to engage in such as well.

The problem however was that things never got far enough when it was implemented. While the dream may have been "The United States of Europe", and in time this may still happen (and will, eventually, I believe personally.) it didn't go as quickly as some might have thought back then. While a union of currency was born, each member nation still had independent financial and economic policies as well as great influence locally on fiscal policies and regulations on banking and other financial institutions.
The problem with this is obvious enough. A common currency is not a good idea if you do not also have at least somewhat common economic and financial policies.
This was the problem really, the Euro as a common currency was introduced too early for the political climate. It should have waited until the political climate was more unified within the EU first.
Possibly the belief was that the single currency would expedite this and therefor they chose to accept it in that belief.

However this early or premature adaptation led to problems as we now see. it worked well while things were, or at least seemed to be going along just fine but under times of stress the lack of a true political unity is showing.

I do however think it will ride off this wave and emerge on the other side of it still standing, if with some battle-scars.

It was a good political idea, which wasn't implemented perfectly, it should have been implemented together with greater implementation of united financial and economic policies as well. This may still be a ways off, but possibly this crisis will show a need for such and lead to them. Of course it may instead lead to greater doubt and an upcoming schism about European unity, at which point the EU will have bigger concerns than just saving the Euro.
This latter possibility however I think more unlikely.